The new coronavirus has arrived in Brazil, and the prediction that the national economy may be affected is beginning to be discussed by market analysts, it could be an opportunity for Ceará.
But experts interviewed by the report considered that the reactions to the new disease in Asian stock markets could end up representing a window of opportunity for agribusiness and to the Ceará and national industry.
With the reduction in Chinese production, Brazilian exports may end up increasing to supply the Asian country's market.
Even so, caution will be needed to prevent the virus from having a similar effect on the country to that seen on China's economy.
After two days of closing and the confirmation of the first case of contamination in the country, the Brazilian Stock Exchange (B3) plummeted 7%. Another cause for concern, the exchange rate also showed an unfavorable fluctuation, with the dollar appreciating 1.3% against the real.
But for Lauro Chaves, federal economics advisor and PhD in regional development from the University of Barcelona, it is still too early to make an accurate assessment of the impact of the new coronavirus.
Opportunities for Agribusiness
However, the situation could create good opportunities for agribusiness and industry in Ceará. If China maintains low production levels, Chaves explains, it could seek to expand imports to make up for the lack of important products.
Among the factors for choosing the origin of these items will be, for example, the analysis of the points of contagion of the virus. Negotiating with companies from countries where the coronavirus has not yet created points of contagion can prevent the re-entry of the disease into Chinese cities.
“Agricultural production may be able to open up new markets. Perhaps the ones who will benefit are Brazilian agribusiness or industry, which will have opportunities with the reduction in the level of activity in China,” said Chaves.
“Many cities there are under curfew because the risk of contamination is very high, and the mortality rate is very severe. When there is this risk, people stay home from work,” he added.