Sao Paulo — Good news: production Industrial production rose 0.9% in January compared to December, in the seasonally adjusted series, interrupting a sequence of two consecutive declines. This was announced this Tuesday, 10, by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
Despite not indicating a trend for the coming months, the result came in above the Bloomberg consensus of 0.6% and . However, within the expectations of analysts heard by Projeções Broadcast.
Although Grupo Estado's real-time news system expected a drop of 0.5% to an advance of 1.9%, it was just above the positive median of 0.8%.
Production of goods
The increase is the most intense since August last year and was driven by the production of capital goods, which rose 12.6% in the month after falling 12.26% in December.
“Overall, the data is not strong enough to reverse expectations of slower activity – good news in 2020. Therefore, we remember that in January the Coronavirus episode had not yet broken out.
Therefore, observing increases in Capital goods and in the production of Durable Goods is a relief in an environment of bad news on the economic front”, says André Perfeito, chief economist at Necton, in a note.
Despite this, according to the IBGE, the industrial sector is still 17.1% below the record level reached in May 2011 and at the same level as August 2004, that is, more than 15 years ago.
“The current positive result derives more from a weak base, on top of two consecutive months of declines, than from an improvement in the scenario or environment,” assessed the research manager, André Macedo.
“At the end of last year, there was a period of collective vacations in sectors such as automobiles and metallurgy. However, it is natural that with the return to work there will be good news about increased production,” he added.
Extractive industries
Compared to December, 7 of the 26 industrial segments recorded an increase in production in January. Among the activities, the most important positive influences in the assessment of 4E consultancy were machinery and equipment (11.5%). Although motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (4.0%), metallurgy (6.1%), food products (1.6%) and coke, petroleum products and biofuels (2.3%).
On the negative side, extractive industries (-3.1%) were quite important, highlights 4E. “This is the fifth consecutive month of decline in the sector's production, which has accumulated a loss of 8.9% in this period”, says 4E in a note.