The improvement in projections for Brazil's economic growth certainly does not raise concerns about the electricity sector's ability to absorb investment.
According to experts, the expansion of the generating park in recent years guarantees a buffer until at least 2024, and there is no risk of supply shortages.
After three years of progress close to 1%, the growth expectation of GDP in 2020.
In the previous four years, energy consumption rose by around 5%, from 64 thousand average megawatts (MWm) in 2015.
In the same period, installed capacity increased by 22%, from 134 gigawatts (GW) to 172 GW.
It was during this period that the Santo Antônio, Jirau, Belo Monte hydroelectric plants, wind and solar plants came into operation.
These projects were planned years in advance, based on GDP and consumption growth projects that were much larger than those that were ultimately implemented, explains Cristopher Vlavianos, president of Comerc.
We have a structural gap, as we had an increase in installed capacity without any counterpart.
Another 23 GW should be added by 2024, says Rodrigo Limp, director of the National Electric Energy Agency (Aneel).
“We are confident that Brazil's electricity sector is prepared to meet the economy's robust energy consumption in the coming years.”
Thermoelectric Park
The coordinator of the Electrical Sector Study Group (Gesel) at UFRJ, Nivalde de Castro, however, emphasizes that the country has a thermoelectric park that can be activated if there is any type of pressure.
From a market service perspective, there's no concern until 2024. "Our concern is always the price we'll face," he says.
According to him, however, with the improvement in the economic scenario and to avoid higher prices, several Abiape associates are considering resuming investments in their own plants in Brazil.
If in the past hydroelectric plants were the preference of self-producers, today the sector is investing in wind power, with an eye on the “cheap energy shock” promised by Economy Minister Paulo Guedes.