In times of quarantine due to the novel coronavirus, the horizon seems further away than usual. While on the one hand, health is protected with... isolation, economists comment that the economic side could face dark times.
With the shutdown of non-essential services, part of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) also comes to a standstill. In Goiás, according to economist Aurélio Troncoso, coordinator of the UniAlfa master's research center, this represents approximately 60%.
According to him, Governor Ronaldo Caiado (DEM) has been gradually relaxing the quarantine, but, apparently in the latest decree, in areas where it is not as impacted.
The text published in the State Official Gazette on Thursday (26) brought, through a supplement, some changes to the quarantine rules and the complementary law, approved on Wednesday (25) by the Legislative Assembly of Goiás (Alego), which exempts the government from complying with previously planned fiscal targets.
As noted, the changes to the quarantine terms are minor and do not affect the lives of most people. The new wording of Decree 9.633/2020 authorizes the progress of construction projects related to electricity, basic sanitation, hospitals, socio-educational projects, public infrastructure projects, and those of social interest, as well as commercial and industrial establishments that supply these projects.
The government also allows tire shops, workshops, restaurants and snack bars to operate on highways.
Workshops and tire shops must operate on a rotating basis to be established by municipalities. Accommodation is also permitted for all those involved in providing public services or private activities considered essential.
Thought economists comment
For Aurélio, the initial 15-day quarantine was beneficial. It allowed the country to prepare and educate people on how to deal with the situation, especially regarding personal hygiene. However, he believes it's time to gradually reopen other sectors.
"Caiado needs to start realizing that 68% of the state's revenue is ICMS (Tax on Goods and Services). Without work and production, there's no income. He'll have trouble paying the payroll," he predicts, highlighting the problem facing State Secretary of Economy Cristiane Schmidt.
"People will be more cautious now. But we still have to keep the elderly in quarantine. Even the fear people felt was significant," he declared. "But we will have problems with low-income people, despite the federal government releasing R$1,400 per person for the informal market [those registered]."
However, he points out that the middle class can survive on two or three months' worth of savings through credit cards and overdrafts. However, the poorest cannot.
Although what about Wednesday's decree? There's also not much that can be done about employees and business owners, according to Aurélio. "Some can maintain this for 15 days, others that aren't 'factory floors' can work from home, but not for long either," he adds, concluding. "The governor thinks like a doctor, and he's not wrong. He's analyzing health. But he has to consider other areas, too."