The Federal University of Goiás (UFG) through the Secretariat of Planning, Evaluation and Institutional Information (Secplan/UFG) carried out a technical study on the coronavirus and its impact on health and the economy in Goias.
The objective of the research is to predict the future behavior of the epidemic in the state, in relation to the international and national contexts, and the possible socioeconomic impacts of the measures adopted by the state government.
Study of the spread of the virus
After evaluating the evolution of the pandemic in other countries, the study concluded that the number of cases tends to grow exponentially after the 50th case. According to the research, Brazil follows the same trend seen in France, with an average rate of 29.3% new cases per day. In Goiás, the growth rate is 22% per day. If this trend continues, the 50th case could occur on March 31st.
In São Paulo, one of the main epicenters of the epidemic in the country, the average rate is 28.3% per day. Compared to São Paulo, the numbers in Goiás are not as high.
Underreporting or a result of isolation?
However, researchers are uncertain about the low rate of case growth in Goiás and warn that the disease may be underreported.
On the other hand, this number may also reflect the effects of the quarantine decreed by the state government. "If these are effects of restrictions on the movement of people, the spread of COVID-19 can be controlled," the researchers state.
Restrictive measures and economic impacts
Therefore, research has found that the measures adopted so far by the state government are in line with what was done in the Chinese city of Wuhan, where there is no longer community transmission of the virus. The main focus of infection cases in Goiás is located in Goiânia. According to the researchers, the state must act to contain the emergence of new outbreaks and avoid a situation similar to that in Italy, where the existence of multiple outbreaks makes it difficult to concentrate efforts.
The restrictive measures, however, have significant economic impacts on various sectors, as they alter the dynamics of service and commercial structures in the state of Goiás. A state of emergency was declared in the state on March 13th. School classes were suspended, and sporting events were held without spectators.
In short, new decrees were subsequently issued, suspending economic activities in fairs and shopping centers, gyms, bars, and restaurants. Interstate transportation was also banned. According to the study, maintaining these measures is important to slow the spread of the disease. However, they can have significant impacts on the state's economy.
"However, these measures, if prolonged, could lead to layoffs, business closures, and reduced tax revenue, worsening the economic crisis. On the other hand, if not adopted, they could lead to the collapse of the public health system and increase the number of deaths from the disease," the researchers say.
Therefore, despite the worrying situation, conducting studies on the impacts of restrictions can contribute to the development of public policies aimed at normalizing the state's economy. "There are two necessary fronts of action: one in the health sector and the other in the economy," they conclude.