Last year was a year of economic progress in RS. This is shown by the Gross Domestic Product (GDP of RS) that was presented yesterday morning by the Department of Economics and Statistics (DEE), linked to the Secretariat of Planning, Budget and Management (Seplag).
The 2% increase is greater than the Brazilian average, which closed with a 1.1% increase. According to the agency's analysis, this result is mainly due to the performance of agriculture. Thus, the first six months, the harvest period, held back the 0.3% slowdown of the previous four months.
However, this retraction at the end of the year is due to the results of the industry, with a drop of 3.9% compared to the same period in 2018. In the period, agriculture (+3) and services (+1.5%) recorded the best numbers.
According to researchers, the year was expected to end with a contraction, as there was a slowdown in industries, particularly in the vehicle, machinery, and equipment segment. "The increase in wheat production minimized the impacts," emphasizes DEE analyst Martinho Lazzari.
The 2% increase is the largest since 2013. At the time, GDP grew 5.8%. Therefore, it represents a recovery after the drought that frustrated the 2011/12 harvest results. The indicator represents the sum of the wealth produced by the regions of Rio Grande do Sul (RS GDP).
Negative outlook for 2020
However, the previous positive result is unlikely to be repeated. This is the experts' analysis. The main reason is the drought. According to data from Emater/RS-Ascar, productivity losses exceed 30% in soybeans. Corn saw a loss of 26.3%.
The diagnosis refers to the situation as of this Monday. "The drought persists, and these numbers may increase," says technical director Alencar Ruger. He also points out that the survey shows losses of up to 75% in some municipalities, but the data refers to a statewide average.
The institution's president, Geraldo Sandri, emphasizes that crop monitoring is carried out periodically and there is no forecast for new data to be released before the harvest is complete.
According to Vanessa Sulzbach, head of the DEE Indicators Division, the failed harvest is compounded by the global economic slowdown caused by the effects of the coronavirus.
Productive sectors
Therefore, the increase in RS's GDP was driven by agriculture (+6.2%), with emphasis on the increases in wheat (+30.6%), corn (25.9%) and soybean (5.5%) production.
Industry (+1.5%) also outperformed Brazil (+0.5%). Highlights include the electricity and gas, water, sewage and urban cleaning segments (+3.5%) and the manufacturing industry (+1.8%), which is the most representative in the state's economy.
Among the activities with the highest increases in the manufacturing industry are the manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and bodies (13.5%), metal products (8.8%) and leather and footwear (7.6%). Among the largest declines are metallurgy (-5.3%), rubber and plastic products (-5.3%) and machinery and equipment (-4.2%).
However, the services sector in Rio Grande do Sul was similar to the country's (+1.6% against +1.3% in Brazil). All activities in the sector recorded positive performance, with emphasis on information services (+3.8%) and financial intermediation and insurance (3%).
In trade, the result was below the national average. RS saw growth of 0.6%, while the country saw growth of 1.8%.