In a temperature drop bulletin updated on January 9, the National Oceanographic and Meteorological Center (NOAA) maintained its forecast of climate neutrality, without El Niño or La Niña.
In summary, neutrality is favored until autumn 2020 in the Southern Hemisphere (60% chance), continuing until winter 2020. This does not mean that the Pacific temperature will be within the average.
Currently, we observe a warmer area in the Central and Eastern Ocean, something considered within the climatology of NOAA as a drop in temperature (the Pacific always warms around Christmas) and which is not associated with the development of a new El Niño.
In any case, these oscillations cause intraseasonal variations related to tropical oscillations (Madden-Julian) or to the warming of the Atlantic.
The trend was for precipitation to be concentrated until the end of the second ten days of January in Southeast Brazil and the Amazon. During the same period, there was some rain, but with low accumulation in the South and no conditions for reversal of precipitation. drought in RS.
In the last ten days of January, the rains gained strength and spread across the North, Northeast, Central-West and Southeast, leaving the South with little rain.
In February, rainfall decreased in São Paulo and continued over the country's Center-North region. With so much cloud cover, temperature drops have not frequently reached extreme levels this summer in most of Brazil. In Rio Grande do Sul, dry periods favor high maximum temperatures.
Temperature – General Forecast
Temperatures remained higher than normal in Rio Grande do Sul during February. Lows fell below 15°C on some days, reducing rice productivity at the end of the harvest.
In March, temperatures remain above average in the state. In April, however, temperatures remain higher than normal.
However, the first cold snaps are expected to arrive by mid-month. Cold snaps are intensifying, and one of them, forecast for late May and early June, increases the chance of widespread frosts in southern Brazil.
Precipitation – General Forecast
January ended with irregular rainfall over the Southern Region. Overall, the total accumulated rainfall ranged between 100mm and 200mm in Rio Grande do Sul.
Along the state's border with Uruguay, less than 100 mm of rain fell for the third consecutive month, and the drought is worsening. In February, rainfall distribution was again uneven, with below-average precipitation across much of Rio Grande do Sul.
Therefore, rainfall was heavier in the second half of the month, but still insufficient to reverse the water deficit in many areas. The drought was felt in the south of the state, with accumulated rainfall below 100 mm.
In March, much of the Rio Grande do Sul region will remain with below-average rainfall, but the accumulated rainfall will still reach at least 100 mm in the south of the state.
Starting in April, as is typical for autumn, precipitation will increase over the South, with accumulated amounts exceeding 200 mm in the North. In May, rainfall will continue over the South, with accumulated amounts exceeding 200 mm.
Drop in temperature?
Generally speaking, in rice-producing areas, there's no major concern, even with the drought that has prevailed in recent months.
Therefore, the crops were not as affected, as they still had enough water to grow.
In short, from now on, the lack of rain will not worry producers much either, as there is little time left before harvest begins and therefore, the dry weather will even help.